AI and work

Will AI Replace My Job? What Government Data Actually Shows

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics now builds AI into its 10-year job projections, carefully and only where it sees convincing evidence. It calls the uncertainty about AI's impact very high, and its projections are not forecasts. Here is what it does publish, and how to check your own job.

Check your own job in three steps

List the core tasks of your job
Find your job on O*NET OnLine (U.S. Department of Labor) — occupation profiles with tasks and read its task list.
Mark the tasks that are mostly reading, writing or sorting information
BLS expects AI to mainly affect jobs whose core tasks are easiest for generative AI to copy. The more of your day those tasks fill, the more your job may change.
Check the 10-year outlook and pay
Look up your job in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, then compare an offer with Offer Check.

Four jobs BLS has looked at closely

Pay and outlook come from the current Occupational Outlook Handbook (projections for 2025–35). The AI notes come from BLS case studies published in February 2025 for the 2023–33 projections.

Job	Median pay, May 2025	Projected change, 2025–35	Openings a year	What BLS says about AI	Next step
Customer service representatives	$44,770	-5%	289,500	BLS: simple tasks are increasingly automated or handled by self-service.	Open jobs · Step-by-step path
Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners and investigators	$78,020	-6%	21,600	BLS case study: AI-driven efficiency is expected to reduce demand.	Open jobs
Paralegals and legal assistants	$62,890	0%	40,800	BLS case study: lower demand expected as law firms adopt large language models.	Open jobs
Software developers	$134,040	10%	106,100	BLS case study: a decline in employment is unlikely.	Open jobs

Questions

Does BLS give my job an "AI risk score"?

No. BLS adjusts its projections where it finds convincing evidence of AI's effect, and explains the larger changes in case studies. JoRoute does not invent a score either.

Which kinds of jobs does BLS see AI affecting most?

The BLS fact sheet points to computer and mathematical jobs; arts, design, media and entertainment; and several business, sales and office support roles.

If my job is projected to shrink, should I quit?

Not necessarily. A shrinking job can still have many openings each year, because people retire or change jobs. Customer service still has about 289,500 openings a year.

Which jobs are growing?

See jobs powering the AI boom: the trades that build and run the power and cooling data centers need.

Jobs powering the AI boom Check an offer

General information from U.S. government sources, not career or financial advice.

Sources

Checked 2026-10-24.